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Copa America on Kalshi
If Venezuela is the 2028 Copa America champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2028 Copa America? · Argentina | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,646 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Uruguay win the 2028 Copa America? · Uruguay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 404 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Mexico win the 2028 Copa America? · Mexico | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 393 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will USA win the 2028 Copa America? · USA | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 361 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Brazil win the 2028 Copa America? · Brazil | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 331 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Peru win the 2028 Copa America? · Peru | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 305 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Canada win the 2028 Copa America? · Canada | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 304 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Colombia win the 2028 Copa America? · Colombia | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 202 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Guatemala win the 2028 Copa America? · Guatemala | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 63 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Ecuador win the 2028 Copa America? · Ecuador | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 60 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Venezuela win the 2028 Copa America? · Venezuela | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Jamaica win the 2028 Copa America? · Jamaica | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Curacao win the 2028 Copa America? · Curacao | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Costa Rica win the 2028 Copa America? · Costa Rica | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Chile win the 2028 Copa America? · Chile | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Bolivia win the 2028 Copa America? · Bolivia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Paraguay win the 2028 Copa America? · Paraguay | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will El Salvador win the 2028 Copa America? · El Salvador | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Trinidad and Tobago win the 2028 Copa America? · Trinidad and Tobago | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Panama win the 2028 Copa America? · Panama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Haiti win the 2028 Copa America? · Haiti | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
| Will Honduras win the 2028 Copa America? · Honduras | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:19 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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