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Copa Do Brasil on Kalshi
If Vitoria is the 2026 Copa do Brasil champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vasco da Gama win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Vasco da Gama | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,276 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Palmeiras win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Palmeiras | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 1,614 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Gremio win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Gremio | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,592 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico Mineiro win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Atletico Mineiro | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,374 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Internacional win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Internacional | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 680 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Paranaense win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Paranaense | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 371 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Fluminense win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Fluminense | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 233 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Corinthians win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Corinthians | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 215 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Fortaleza win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Fortaleza | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 136 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Cruzeiro win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Cruzeiro | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 135 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Santos win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Santos | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 58 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Vitoria win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Vitoria | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Mirassol win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Mirassol | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Juventude RS win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Juventude RS | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Remo win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Remo | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Chapecoense win the 2026 Copa do Brasil? · Chapecoense | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 21, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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