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Coupe de France Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the En Avt de St Renan vs Stade Lavallois professional Coupe de France soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Marcquois wins · Olympique Marcquois | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 295 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 217 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| FC Vesoul wins · FC Vesoul | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Fleury wins · Fleury | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Nancy-Lorraine wins · Nancy-Lorraine | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 2 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| En Avt de St Renan wins · En Avt de St Renan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Stade Lavallois wins · Stade Lavallois | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Vendee Fontenay Foot wins · Vendee Fontenay Foot | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Clermont Foot wins · Clermont Foot | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| FC Hauts Lyonnais wins · FC Hauts Lyonnais | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| FC Chalon wins · FC Chalon | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| AM Du Personnel Muncipal Metz wins · AM Du Personnel Muncipal Metz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| RCF Besancon wins · RCF Besancon | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Bethunois wins · Bethunois | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| IS-Selongey Football wins · IS-Selongey Football | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| AS Ptt Dijon wins · AS Ptt Dijon | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Seyssinet AC wins · Seyssinet AC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Nimes wins · Nimes | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Trelissac FC wins · Trelissac FC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Rives 82 wins · Rives 82 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Lyon La Duchere wins · Lyon La Duchere | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| US Feurs wins · US Feurs | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Olympique Charleville Prix Ardenne Metropole wins · Olympique Charleville Prix Ardenne Metropole | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| FC Chambly Oise wins · FC Chambly Oise | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| AS PTT Caen wins · AS PTT Caen | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Red Star wins · Red Star | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
| Paris 13 Atletico wins · Paris 13 Atletico | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 17, 13:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.