What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Congressional Progressive Caucus size on Kalshi

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 115 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

97% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 100	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	622	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 97 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 97	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	610	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 105	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	204	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 110	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	8	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 95	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	4	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 115 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 115	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 107 on Feb 1, 2027? · Above 107	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	0	Feb 01, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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