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Critics Choice Award for Best Actor on Kalshi
If Tie has won Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ryan Gosling | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 26,110 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,609 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · John Malkovich | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 4,852 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Brad Pitt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,037 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Andrew Scott | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 271 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Firstman win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Jordan Firstman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 127 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Anthony Ippolito | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 68 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Matt Damon | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 41 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tom Cruise | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sebastian Stan | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Robert Pattinson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pedro Pascal win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Pedro Pascal | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miles Teller win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Miles Teller | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Turturro win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · John Turturro | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack O’Connell win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Jack O’Connell | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dominic Sessa win Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Dominic Sessa | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 37 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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