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Critics Choice Award for Best Actress on Kalshi
If Virginie Efira has won Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,625 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emily Blunt win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Emily Blunt | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 250 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Inde Navarrette | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 44 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Julianne Moore | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginie Efira win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Virginie Efira | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sandra Hüller win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sandra Hüller | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Renate Reinsve | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruth Madeley win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ruth Madeley | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rosalind Eleazar win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Rosalind Eleazar | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Wilde win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Olivia Wilde | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mason Reeves win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Mason Reeves | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Mikey Madison | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marion Bailey win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Marion Bailey | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Léa Seydoux win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Léa Seydoux | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeon Do-yeon win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Jeon Do-yeon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carrie Coon win Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Carrie Coon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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