Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
Critics Choice Nominees on Kalshi
If Yura Borisov is on the list of nominees for Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
35%
Median YES price across 498 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · La Bola Negra | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 51,871 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Odyssey | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,858 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ray Gunn be on the list of nominees for Best Animated Feature at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ray Gunn | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 8,570 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Godzilla Minus Zero be on the list of nominees for Best Visual Effects at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Godzilla Minus Zero | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 7,770 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord be on the list of nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Fjord | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 7,456 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · La Bola Negra | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 6,490 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginie Efira be on the list of nominees for Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Virginie Efira | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 4,515 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord be on the list of nominees for Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Fjord | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,404 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ryan Gosling be on the list of nominees for Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ryan Gosling | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 4,381 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Malkovich be on the list of nominees for Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · John Malkovich | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,300 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wild Horse Nine be on the list of nominees for Best Comedy at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Wild Horse Nine | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 4,168 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary be on the list of nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Project Hail Mary | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 4,106 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emily Blunt be on the list of nominees for Best Actress at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Emily Blunt | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 4,071 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary be on the list of nominees for Best Score at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Project Hail Mary | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 4,058 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Editing at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Odyssey | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 4,053 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial be on the list of nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Artificial | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 4,034 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wuthering Heights be on the list of nominees for Best Costume Design at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Wuthering Heights | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 3,910 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elsinore be on the list of nominees for Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Elsinore | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 3,898 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dune: Part Three be on the list of nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Dune: Part Three | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 3,631 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Production Design at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Odyssey | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,585 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Harbour be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · David Harbour | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3,562 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom be on the list of nominees for Best Animated Feature at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 3,400 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Linda Cardellini be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Linda Cardellini | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3,373 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Debut be on the list of nominees for Best Comedy at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Debut | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 3,373 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kate O’Flynn be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Kate O’Flynn | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,243 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Score at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Odyssey | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,212 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Cruise be on the list of nominees for Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tom Cruise | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,964 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will I Love Boosters be on the list of nominees for Best Costume Design at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · I Love Boosters | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,806 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Score at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · La Bola Negra | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 2,706 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gary Oldman be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Gary Oldman | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,597 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elle Fanning be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Elle Fanning | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 2,532 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Cinematography at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Odyssey | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,505 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Godzilla Minus Zero be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Godzilla Minus Zero | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 2,498 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denis Villeneuve be on the list of nominees for Best Director at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Denis Villeneuve | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2,400 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth be on the list of nominees for Best Costume Design at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,328 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Digger be on the list of nominees for Best Cinematography at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Digger | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,145 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rufus Sewell be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Rufus Sewell | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,118 | Jan 04, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Slow Horses be on the list of nominees for Best Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Slow Horses | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,117 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Invite be on the list of nominees for Best Comedy at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · The Invite | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,055 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wild Horse Nine be on the list of nominees for Best Production Design at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Wild Horse Nine | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 2,020 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 498 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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