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Critics Choice Award for Best TV Drama Supporting Actor on Kalshi
If Tie has won Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5,622 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Ball win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Patrick Ball | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,775 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Marsden win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · James Marsden | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kit Harington win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Kit Harington | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ewan Mitchell win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ewan Mitchell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jack Lowden win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Jack Lowden | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shawn Hatosy win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Shawn Hatosy | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Elliott win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sam Elliott | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Smith win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Matt Smith | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Max Minghella win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Max Minghella | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ken Leung win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ken Leung | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gerran Howell win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Gerran Howell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Finn Bennett win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Finn Bennett | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Ings win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Daniel Ings | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dexter Sol Ansell win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Dexter Sol Ansell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Assad Zaman win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Assad Zaman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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