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Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor on Kalshi
If Timothy Olyphant has won Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Joel Kinnaman win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Joel Kinnaman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39,818 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hoon Lee win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Hoon Lee | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,727 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Harbour win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · David Harbour | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,969 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Melton win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Charles Melton | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 976 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 200 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Starkey win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Drew Starkey | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 130 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adam DiMarco win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Adam DiMarco | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 130 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Bateman win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Jason Bateman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 118 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Timothy Olyphant win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Timothy Olyphant | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 111 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Faist win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Mike Faist | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 111 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Gadd win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Richard Gadd | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 110 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Jenkins win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Richard Jenkins | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Slattery win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · John Slattery | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Corey Stoll win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Corey Stoll | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ciarán Hinds win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ciarán Hinds | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alessandro Nivola win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Alessandro Nivola | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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