Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Coreweave quarter kpi on Kalshi
If CoreWeave, Inc. reports Above 4.8 contracted power capacity in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 56 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 56 | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,117 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.4 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 4.4 gw | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 939 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 4 gw | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 900 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 55 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 55 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 739 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.2 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 4.2 gw | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 723 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 54 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 54 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 563 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 59 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 59 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 442 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.6 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 4.6 gw | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 410 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 57 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 57 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 405 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 58 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 58 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 205 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.8 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 4.8 gw | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 115 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 3.8 gw contracted power capacity in Q3 2026? · Above 3.8 gw | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 50 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 64 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 64 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 63 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 63 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 62 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 62 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 61 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 61 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 60 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 60 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 53 data centers in Q3 2026? · Above 53 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 10, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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