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CoreWeave annual kpi on Kalshi
If CoreWeave, Inc. reports Above 5.6 contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
39%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 39¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.14 | 40.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 64 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 64 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,712 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 62 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 62 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,103 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 66 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 66 | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 912 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 5.2 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 5.2 gw | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 141 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 5.6 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 5.6 gw | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 5.4 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 5.4 gw | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 5 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 5 gw | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.8 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.8 gw | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.6 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.6 gw | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 4.4 gw contracted power capacity in fiscal 2026? · Above 4.4 gw | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 72 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 72 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 70 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 70 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will CoreWeave, Inc. report Above 68 data centers in fiscal 2026? · Above 68 | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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