Markets › Kalshi › Companies
Carvana Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Carvana Co. reports Above 910000 retail vehicle unit sales in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 900 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 900 thousand | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,667 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 910 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 910 thousand | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,375 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 840 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 840 thousand | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,705 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 890 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 890 thousand | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,632 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 800 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 800 thousand | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,364 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 820 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 820 thousand | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,244 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 810 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 810 thousand | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,219 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 830 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 830 thousand | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 822 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 850 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 850 thousand | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 524 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 780 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 780 thousand | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 515 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 880 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 880 thousand | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 300 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 790 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 790 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 147 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 870 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 870 thousand | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Carvana Co. report Above 860 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 860 thousand | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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