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Cyclosporiasis Casese on Kalshi
If the total number of Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 44000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, World Health Organization.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 34000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 34k | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 265 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 42000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 42k | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 153 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 36000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 36k | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 54 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 44000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 44k | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 40000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 40k | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 38000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 38k | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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