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Darts Match on Kalshi
If Derek Coulson wins the Archie Self vs Derek Coulson Modus Super Series darts match originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 8:50 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Flashscore, Sofascore, Sky Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 58 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Robert Thornton win the Steve West vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Robert Thornton | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 450 | Nov 24, 10:35 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Robert Thornton vs Neil Duff darts match? · Robert Thornton | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 386 | Nov 24, 11:45 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Steve West vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Steve West | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 302 | Nov 24, 10:35 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Robert Thornton vs Neil Duff darts match? · Neil Duff | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 302 | Nov 24, 11:45 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Derek Coulson vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Robert Thornton | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 200 | Nov 24, 13:10 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Derek Coulson vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Derek Coulson | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 48 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Conan Whitehead vs Archie Self darts match? · Archie Self | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 47 | Nov 24, 10:50 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Neil Duff vs Steve West darts match? · Steve West | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 45 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Derek Coulson vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Derek Coulson | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 34 | Nov 24, 13:10 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Neil Duff vs Steve West darts match? · Neil Duff | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 10 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Derek Coulson vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Archie Self vs Neil Duff darts match? · Archie Self | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Neil Duff vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Neil Duff | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1 | Nov 24, 12:55 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Archie Self vs Steve West darts match? · Archie Self | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1 | Nov 24, 11:25 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Archie Self vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Derek Coulson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:50 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Archie Self vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Archie Self | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:50 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Neil Duff vs Steve West darts match? · Steve West | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Neil Duff vs Steve West darts match? · Neil Duff | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Robert Thornton vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Robert Thornton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:10 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Robert Thornton vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:10 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Derek Coulson vs Neil Duff darts match? · Neil Duff | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:55 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Derek Coulson vs Neil Duff darts match? · Derek Coulson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:55 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Robert Thornton vs Archie Self darts match? · Robert Thornton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:35 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Robert Thornton vs Archie Self darts match? · Archie Self | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:35 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Conan Whitehead vs Steve West darts match? · Steve West | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:20 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Conan Whitehead vs Steve West darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:20 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Neil Duff vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Robert Thornton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Neil Duff vs Robert Thornton darts match? · Neil Duff | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Steve West vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Steve West | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:45 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Steve West vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Derek Coulson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:45 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Archie Self vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:25 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Archie Self vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Archie Self | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:25 UTC |
| Will Robert Thornton win the Robert Thornton vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Robert Thornton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:10 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Robert Thornton vs Derek Coulson darts match? · Derek Coulson | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 11:10 UTC |
| Will Neil Duff win the Conan Whitehead vs Neil Duff darts match? · Neil Duff | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:50 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Conan Whitehead vs Neil Duff darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:50 UTC |
| Will Steve West win the Archie Self vs Steve West darts match? · Steve West | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:35 UTC |
| Will Archie Self win the Archie Self vs Steve West darts match? · Archie Self | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:35 UTC |
| Will Derek Coulson win the Derek Coulson vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Derek Coulson | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:15 UTC |
| Will Conan Whitehead win the Derek Coulson vs Conan Whitehead darts match? · Conan Whitehead | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 10:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 58 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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