Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Datadog quarter kpi on Kalshi
If Datadog, Inc. reports Above 5450 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5200 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5200 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 300 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5100 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5100 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 100 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5450 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5450 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5400 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5350 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5350 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5300 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5300 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5250 customers with arr over $100k in Q1 2027? · Above 5250 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Sep 03, 11:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.