Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Debt-limit increase on Kalshi
If legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt has become law after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,683 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 340 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 50 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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