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Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run? on Kalshi
If Wes Moore is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: person, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Ballotpedia, CBS, NBC, Axios, the Federal Election Commission, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, The New York Times, official campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 43 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Gavin Newsom | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 18,868 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Kamala Harris | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,020 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Pete Buttigieg | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 15,051 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Andy Beshear | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 14,794 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Josh Shapiro | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 8,914 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Gavin Newsom | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 8,387 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Pete Buttigieg | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7,742 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · J.B. Pritzker | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 6,457 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Kamala Harris | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,364 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Andy Beshear | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 6,234 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 5,281 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Wes Moore | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,757 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Jon Ossoff | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 4,175 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,693 | Nov 07, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Rahm Emanuel | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 3,660 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Josh Shapiro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,431 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Ro Khanna | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 3,309 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · J.B. Pritzker | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,081 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Wes Moore | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,594 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,794 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Jon Ossoff | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,336 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Cory Booker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Cory Booker | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 512 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 501 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mitch Landrieu be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Mitch Landrieu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 127 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will James Talarico be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · James Talarico | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 117 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Mark Kelly | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 88 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Raphael Warnock | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 76 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Andrew Yang be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Andrew Yang | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 70 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Gina Raimondo be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Gina Raimondo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 62 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Elissa Slotkin be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Elissa Slotkin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 46 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Amy Klobuchar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 45 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen A. Smith be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Stephen A. Smith | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Graham Platner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Graham Platner | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Ruben Gallego | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Roy Cooper be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Roy Cooper | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Michelle Obama be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Michelle Obama | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Mark Cuban be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Mark Cuban | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Stewart be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Jon Stewart | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jared Polis be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Jared Polis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028? · Jasmine Crockett | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 01, 03:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 43 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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