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Democratic pledged delegate majority on Kalshi
If the Associated Press delegate count shows any candidate with a majority of the pledged delegates to the 2028 Democratic National Convention before September 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Democrat win a pledged delegate majority before September 1, 2028? · Before Sep 1, 2028 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win a pledged delegate majority before July 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win a pledged delegate majority before June 1, 2028? · Before Jun 1, 2028 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win a pledged delegate majority before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Democrat win a pledged delegate majority before April 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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