Markets › Kalshi › Politics
US democratic backsliding on Kalshi
If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Economist.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 68¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.12 | 69.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028 · Below 7.60 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 18,917 | May 17, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028 · Below 7.50 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 14,110 | May 17, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028 · Below 7.00 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 12,363 | May 17, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028 · Below 7.25 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 6,049 | May 17, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.