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Companies removed from DJIA on Kalshi
If Walmart is announced to be or is officially removed from Dow Jones Industrial Average during Jun 25, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nike be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Nike | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,228 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travelers Cos be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Travelers Cos | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,485 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Goldman Sachs Group be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Goldman Sachs Group | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 793 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chevron be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Chevron | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 786 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will American Express be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · American Express | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 430 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sherwin-Williams be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Sherwin-Williams | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 331 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Home Depot | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 218 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Honeywell International be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Honeywell International | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 140 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Boeing | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 93 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Procter & Gamble be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Procter & Gamble | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 71 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will McDonald's be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · McDonald's | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 65 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Walt Disney be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Walt Disney | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 60 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caterpillar be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Caterpillar | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 19 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cisco Systems be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Cisco Systems | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will International Business Machines Corp be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · International Business Machines Corp | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amazon be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Amazon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Salesforce be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Salesforce | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · NVIDIA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Visa be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Visa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UnitedHealth Group be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · UnitedHealth Group | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JPMorgan Chase be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · JPMorgan Chase | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Walmart be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Walmart | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Microsoft be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Microsoft | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Merck be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Merck | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coca-Cola be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Coca-Cola | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Johnson & Johnson be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Johnson & Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amgen be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Amgen | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Apple be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? · Apple | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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