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fed dot plot on Kalshi
If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 4.6% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
71%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 71¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $1.02 | 72.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.1% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,336 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 3.9% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 637 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.3% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 609 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.0% | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 532 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.2% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 451 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 3.8% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 78 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 62 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 40 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 4.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 3.7% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 3.6% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| What will the median be in the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 dot plot? · Above 3.5% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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