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Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? on Kalshi
If Wes Moore wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, US State Governments, New York Times, NBC News, ABC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Andy Beshear | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 5 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Gavin Newsom | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Jon Ossoff | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Wes Moore | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Raphael Warnock | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Pete Buttigieg | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Mark Kelly | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Kamala Harris | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · James Talarico | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Josh Shapiro | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win a state in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? · Abdul El-Sayed | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Sep 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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