Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Democratic Senate seats (higher strikes) on Kalshi
If the Democratic party has exactly 57 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic party hold exactly 56 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 56 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,538,088 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold exactly 57 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 57 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 1,531,285 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold exactly 55 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 55 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,365,400 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 54 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,334,541 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · Below 53 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,214,256 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 53 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 995,243 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic party hold more than 57 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 57 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 972,581 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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