Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Duolingo KPI on Kalshi
If Duolingo Inc. reports Above 74000000 daily active users in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 70 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 70 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 74 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 74 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 73 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 73 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 72 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 72 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.6 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.6 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.4 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.4 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14.2 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.2 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 14 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.8 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 13.8 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.6 million paid subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 13.6 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 71 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 71 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 69 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 69 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 68 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 68 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 67 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 67 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 66 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 66 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 64 million daily active users in Q1 2027? · Above 64 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Aug 31, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.