What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Duolingo language rankings on Kalshi

If Spanish achieves Top 10 on Duolingo's worldwide ranking of the most popular languages studied in its annual Duolingo Language Report for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Duolingo.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will English rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · English	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	17,184	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will English rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · English	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	15,414	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will English rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · English	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	7,535	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Spanish rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Spanish	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,458	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will French rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · French	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	6,963	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Japanese rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Japanese	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	6,427	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will German rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · German	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,873	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Chinese rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Chinese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	5,042	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Korean rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Korean	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	4,512	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will German rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · German	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	4,377	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Spanish rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Spanish	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	60%	4,373	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will French rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · French	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,002	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Japanese rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Japanese	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,677	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will French rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · French	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,456	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Hindi rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Hindi	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,361	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Italian rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Italian	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,256	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Portuguese rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Portuguese	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,253	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Portuguese rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Portuguese	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,168	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Hindi rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Hindi	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,094	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Chinese rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Chinese	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,094	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Korean rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · Korean	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,860	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Italian rank #1 on Duolingo in 2026? · Italian	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,754	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will English rank #2 on Duolingo in 2026? · English	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,203	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Spanish rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Spanish	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	1,058	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Portuguese rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Portuguese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Korean rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Korean	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Japanese rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Japanese	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Italian rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Italian	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Hindi rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Hindi	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will German rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · German	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Chinese rank Top 10 on Duolingo in 2026? · Chinese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Spanish rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Spanish	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Portuguese rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Portuguese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Korean rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Korean	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Japanese rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Japanese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Italian rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Italian	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Hindi rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Hindi	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will German rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · German	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will French rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · French	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Chinese rank Top 5 on Duolingo in 2026? · Chinese	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.