What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Mentions

AAL Mention on Kalshi

If Weather is said by any American Airlines Group Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next American Airlines Group Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: American Airlines Group Inc. Investor Events.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

96% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Premium (3+ times)	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	329	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Flagship Suite	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	52%	248	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Holiday	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	149	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Basic Economy	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	41	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Weather	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	24	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · STARLUX	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	6	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Citi	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	6	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Chicago / O’Hare	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	5	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AT&T	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	5	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Shutdown / Shut Down	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	0	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Record	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Lavazza	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Iran / Middle East	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC
What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Centennial	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Apr 28, 13:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.