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AST SpaceMobile on Kalshi
If Vodafone is said by any AST SpaceMobile, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next AST SpaceMobile, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · New Glenn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,153 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · SpaceX | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,213 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · FCC | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,131 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Unmodified | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,854 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Verizon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,366 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Israel | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,257 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Golden Dome | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 825 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Spectrum (3+ times) | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 617 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AT&T | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 537 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Vodafone | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 508 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · BlackSky | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 480 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| What will AST SpaceMobile, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · BlueBird (3+ times) | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 435 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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