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Cerebras on Kalshi
If Wafer Scale Engine is said by any Cerebras Systems Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Cerebras Systems Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Cerebras Systems Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
70%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AWS / Amazon Web Services | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 561 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Europe | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 345 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · OpenAI / ChatGPT | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 326 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · CrowdStrike / Crowd Strike | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 265 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Helios | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 237 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Trainium | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 229 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Kimi | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 181 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Disaggregated | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 165 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Flex | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 140 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AMD | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 137 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Wafer Scale Engine | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 130 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Falcon | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 98 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Customer Concentration | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 78 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
| What will Cerebras Systems Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Bell Canada | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1 | Feb 10, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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