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CrowdStrike Earnings on Kalshi
If XM Cyber is said by any CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
55% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AI Detection | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 54 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Falcon Flex | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · XM Cyber | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tailwind | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Shadow | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · OpenAI | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Nvidia | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Mythos | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Gen AI / Generative AI | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · CoreWeave | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Continuous Identity | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Consolidation | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Claude | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Cerebras | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AWS | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · AgentWorks | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
| What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Acquisition | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Mar 01, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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