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CarMax on Kalshi
If Sierra is said by any CarMax representative (including the operator of the call) during the next CarMax live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CarMax Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
75%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 75¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.88 | 76.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Loan Loss | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 308 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · GPU | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 273 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Conversion | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 71 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Shift into GEAR | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 70 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Leverage | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 20 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · AI Agent | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 13 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · MaxCare / Max Care | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 5 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Inventory (3+ times) | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Affordability | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Sierra | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Reconditioning (3+ times) | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Logistics | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Interest Rate | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Buyback / Buy Back | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| What will CarMax say during their next earnings call? · Acquisition Marketing | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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