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Moodys on Kalshi
If Tariff is said by any Moody's Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Moody's Corporation live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Moody's Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Rate Cut / Cut Rate | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 32 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 32 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Private Credit | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Inflation | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Retention | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Repurchase / Repurchased | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Recession | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Orbis | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Geopolitical | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Data Center | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · BDC | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · AI / Artificial Intelligence (3+ times) | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
| What will Moody's Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Agentic (3+ times) | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | May 18, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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