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NVDA Earnings Mention on Kalshi
If China (5+ times) is said by any NVIDIA Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next NVIDIA Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NVIDIA Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Gaming | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 7,154 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Rubin (3+ times) | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,628 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Hyperscaler | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,256 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Taiwan | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,231 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Automation | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 801 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Dividend (2+ times) | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 370 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Isaac | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 368 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Trump | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 350 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · DSX | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 228 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · H20 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 213 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Domestic | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 198 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · TSMC | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 168 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 155 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Self Driving | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 141 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Hermes | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 67 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Rent / Renting | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 65 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · National Security | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 57 | Feb 16, 22:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Humanoid | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 51 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Omniverse | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 39 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Cosmos | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 37 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Resign / Resignation / Step Down | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 37 | Feb 16, 22:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · China (5+ times) | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Feb 16, 22:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Alibaba | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 16, 22:00 UTC |
| What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call? · Megaspeed | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 16, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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