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Toast, Inc. on Kalshi
If Voice Ordering is said by any Toast, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Toast, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Toast, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Agent / Agentic | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 109 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 16 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Toast IQ | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 13 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Voice Ordering | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 12 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Memory / Chip | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 6 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Fraud / Theft | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 4 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Buyback / Buy Back | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Resy | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Toast, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · FTC / Federal Trade Commission | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | May 12, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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