Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Which countries will report an Ebola case? on Kalshi
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United Arab Emirates is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for <geography>,, Bloomberg, CDC, the World Health Organization, New York Times, Reuters, Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · United States | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 103,909 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Republic of the Congo | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 95,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Rwanda | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 48,388 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · South Sudan | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 39,904 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · China | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 35,431 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · India | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 31,857 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Canada | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 17,034 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Somalia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 16,180 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Ethiopia | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 14,129 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Burundi | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 13,223 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Central African Republic | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 11,775 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Tanzania | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 11,401 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Zambia | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 9,212 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Thailand be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Thailand | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 7,570 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Angola | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,396 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in United Arab Emirates be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · United Arab Emirates | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,394 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Italy be reported before Jan 1, 2027? · Italy | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,827 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.