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EC compact 270 on Kalshi
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Popular Vote Inc.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2028? · Before 2028 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,772 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2030? · Before 2030 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,014 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2032? · Before 2032 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,274 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2034? · Before 2034 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 770 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2029? · Before 2029 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 487 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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