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year over year core inflation on Kalshi
If CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 is exactly 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.7% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,456 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.2% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,306 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.8% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,175 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.9% | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 719 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.7%? · Exactly 2.7% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 631 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.8%? · Exactly 2.8% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 600 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.6%? · Exactly 2.6% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 500 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.4% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 500 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.6% | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 453 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.0% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 453 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.5%? · Exactly 2.5% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 400 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.5% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 300 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.3% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 201 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.9%? · Exactly 2.9% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 200 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.7% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 118 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.1% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 109 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 2.2% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 96 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.3% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 62 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 54 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 54 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026? · Exactly 3.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 54 | Dec 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.1%? · Exactly 3.1% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 20 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.7%? · Exactly 3.7% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.6%? · Exactly 3.6% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.5%? · Exactly 3.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.4%? · Exactly 3.4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.3%? · Exactly 3.3% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.2%? · Exactly 3.2% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 3.0%? · Exactly 3.0% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.4%? · Exactly 2.4% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.3%? · Exactly 2.3% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI core year-over-year for Dec 2026 be exactly 2.2%? · Exactly 2.2% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 13, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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