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EFL Trophy Spread on Kalshi
If Milton Keynes wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Bromley vs Milton Keynes professional EFL Trophy soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
24% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Stockport wins by more than 1.5 goals | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 16,426 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Reading wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Reading wins by more than 1.5 goals | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 2,267 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Stockport wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Stockport wins by more than 2.5 goals | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,981 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bromley wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Bromley wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,772 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Cheltenham wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Cheltenham wins by more than 1.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,467 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Chesterfield wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Chesterfield wins by more than 2.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,171 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Oxford United wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Oxford United wins by more than 1.5 goals | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,071 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Mansfield wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Mansfield wins by more than 2.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,031 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bradford wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Bradford wins by more than 2.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 848 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Mansfield wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Mansfield wins by more than 1.5 goals | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 803 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bradford wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Bradford wins by more than 1.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 764 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tranmere wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Tranmere wins by more than 2.5 goals | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 750 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leyton Orient wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Leyton Orient wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 652 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leicester wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Leicester wins by more than 1.5 goals | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 635 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Reading wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Reading wins by more than 2.5 goals | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 548 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Milton Keynes wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Milton Keynes wins by more than 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 479 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tranmere wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Tranmere wins by more than 1.5 goals | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 389 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bromley wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Bromley wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 363 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Burton wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Burton wins by more than 1.5 goals | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 344 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Barnet wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Barnet wins by more than 2.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 325 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Northampton wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Northampton wins by more than 2.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 208 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Oxford United wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Oxford United wins by more than 2.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 198 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Plymouth wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Plymouth wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 172 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leicester wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Leicester wins by more than 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 130 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Notts wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Notts wins by more than 1.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 124 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bristol Rovers wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Bristol Rovers wins by more than 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 123 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leyton Orient wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Leyton Orient wins by more than 1.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 103 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Milton Keynes wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Milton Keynes wins by more than 2.5 goals | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 88 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Barnet wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Barnet wins by more than 1.5 goals | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 63 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Northampton wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Northampton wins by more than 1.5 goals | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 43 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Plymouth wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Plymouth wins by more than 2.5 goals | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 41 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Chesterfield wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Chesterfield wins by more than 1.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 39 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Gillingham wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Gillingham wins by more than 1.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 21 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Wigan wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Wigan wins by more than 1.5 goals | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 12 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Cheltenham wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Cheltenham wins by more than 2.5 goals | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| York wins by more than 2.5 goals? · York wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| York wins by more than 1.5 goals? · York wins by more than 1.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Swindon wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Swindon wins by more than 2.5 goals | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Swindon wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Swindon wins by more than 1.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Gillingham wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Gillingham wins by more than 2.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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