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House votes on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II on Kalshi
If the number of Representatives voting Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II before Jan 3, 2027 is below 220, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive below 220 Yea votes in the House? · Below 220 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 300 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 400 and 435 Yea votes in the House? · 400-435 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 190 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 220 and 239 Yea votes in the House? · 220-239 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 113 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 380 and 399 Yea votes in the House? · 380-399 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 360 and 379 Yea votes in the House? · 360-379 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 340 and 359 Yea votes in the House? · 340-359 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 320 and 339 Yea votes in the House? · 320-339 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 300 and 319 Yea votes in the House? · 300-319 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 280 and 299 Yea votes in the House? · 280-299 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 260 and 279 Yea votes in the House? · 260-279 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the Epstein Files Transparency Act II receive between 240 and 259 Yea votes in the House? · 240-259 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 03, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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