Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. crude oil inventories on Kalshi
If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 are strictly above 415 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 409 million barrels? · Above 409 million barrels | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 670 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 410 million barrels? · Above 410 million barrels | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 509 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 413 million barrels? · Above 413 million barrels | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 220 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 411 million barrels? · Above 411 million barrels | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 210 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 414 million barrels? · Above 414 million barrels | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 31 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 404 million barrels? · Above 404 million barrels | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 25 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 403 million barrels? · Above 403 million barrels | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 25 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 415 million barrels? · Above 415 million barrels | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 15 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 407 million barrels? · Above 407 million barrels | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 9 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 412 million barrels? · Above 412 million barrels | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 7 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 408 million barrels? · Above 408 million barrels | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 406 million barrels? · Above 406 million barrels | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 6, 2026 be above 405 million barrels? · Above 405 million barrels | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.