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Which companies will Commerce add to the Entity List? on Kalshi
If the United States Department of Commerce announces the addition of Speedmatrix as an expressly named entity to the Entity List before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Register.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States Department of Commerce announce the addition of Speedmatrix as an expressly named entity to the Entity List before Jan 1, 2028? · Speedmatrix | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Commerce announce the addition of Megaspeed as an expressly named entity to the Entity List before Jan 1, 2028? · Megaspeed | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Commerce announce the addition of DeepSeek as an expressly named entity to the Entity List before Jan 1, 2028? · DeepSeek | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the United States Department of Commerce announce the addition of CXMT as an expressly named entity to the Entity List before Jan 1, 2028? · CXMT | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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