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EPL H2H Results on Kalshi
If Tottenham wins one and draws one of the two regular-season league matches against Arsenal in the 2026-27 EPL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win both 2026-27 EPL matches against Tottenham? · Arsenal wins both matches | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win one and draw one of their two 2026-27 EPL matches against Arsenal? · Tottenham wins one and draws one | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win both 2026-27 EPL matches against Arsenal? · Tottenham wins both matches | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal and Tottenham split wins in their two 2026-27 EPL matches? · Each team wins one match | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will both 2026-27 EPL matches between Arsenal and Tottenham end in draws? · Both matches end in draws | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal win one and draw one of their two 2026-27 EPL matches against Tottenham? · Arsenal wins one and draws one | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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