What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 70% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

When will the federal government release more Epstein files? on Kalshi

If the federal government has released more Epstein files to the public before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, the Department of Justice, CBS, NBC, House Oversight Committee Democrats, Axios, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, the White House, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

64% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
68¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.12	69.5%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the federal government release more Epstein files before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	2	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the federal government release more Epstein files before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	1	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the federal government release more Epstein files before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	36%	1	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the federal government release more Epstein files before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	1	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the federal government release more Epstein files before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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