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EU beef quarterly threshold on Kalshi
If the European Commission reports a weekly Adult male indicative price (ACZ URO) for beef carcasses in the European Union at least 777.801904 EUR per 100 kg for any eligible reporting week in October 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive reporting-week End Dates), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the European Commission.
Market says (typical open contract)
25%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
50% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.63 | 26.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU beef price at least EUR 815.43748 by Dec 31? · 30% or more above base | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 160 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 639.804792 by Dec 31? · 2% or more above base | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 127 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 721.34854 by Dec 31? · 15% or more above base | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 49 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 658.62258 by Dec 31? · 5% or more above base | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 27 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 677.440368 by Dec 31? · 8% or more above base | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 20 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 671.167772 by Dec 31? · 7% or more above base | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 19 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 752.71152 by Dec 31? · 20% or more above base | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 12 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 683.712964 by Dec 31? · 9% or more above base | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 9 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 652.349984 by Dec 31? · 4% or more above base | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 5 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 777.801904 by Dec 31? · 24% or more above base | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 771.529308 by Dec 31? · 23% or more above base | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 765.256712 by Dec 31? · 22% or more above base | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 758.984116 by Dec 31? · 21% or more above base | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 746.438924 by Dec 31? · 19% or more above base | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 740.166328 by Dec 31? · 18% or more above base | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 733.893732 by Dec 31? · 17% or more above base | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 727.621136 by Dec 31? · 16% or more above base | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 715.075944 by Dec 31? · 14% or more above base | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 708.803348 by Dec 31? · 13% or more above base | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 702.530752 by Dec 31? · 12% or more above base | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 696.258156 by Dec 31? · 11% or more above base | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 664.895176 by Dec 31? · 6% or more above base | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 646.077388 by Dec 31? · 3% or more above base | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 784.0745 by Dec 31? · 25% or more above base | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| EU beef price at least EUR 689.98556 by Dec 31? · 10% or more above base | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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