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Eurovision participants on Kalshi
If Hungary has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the European Broadcasting Union, member states of the European Broadcasting Union, in hierarchical order, The Source Agencies are, BBC, Special Broadcasting Service, the Associated Press, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 38 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Belgium | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 5,419 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Canada officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Canada | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 4,318 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Czechia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Czechia | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,499 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Kazakhstan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Kazakhstan | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,304 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Israel officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Israel | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 915 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Italy officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Italy | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 379 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Austria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Austria | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 197 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Switzerland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Switzerland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 100 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Bulgaria officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Bulgaria | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 54 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Albania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Albania | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 22 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Ukraine officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Ukraine | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 10 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Australia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Australia | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Hungary officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Hungary | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will United Kingdom officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · United Kingdom | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Sweden officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Sweden | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Serbia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Serbia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will San Marino officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · San Marino | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Romania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Romania | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Portugal officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Portugal | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Poland | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Norway officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Norway | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Montenegro officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Montenegro | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Moldova officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Moldova | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Malta officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Malta | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Luxembourg officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Luxembourg | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Lithuania officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Lithuania | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Latvia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Latvia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Greece officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Greece | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Germany officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Germany | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Georgia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Georgia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will France officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · France | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Finland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Estonia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Estonia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Denmark officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Denmark | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Cyprus officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Cyprus | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Croatia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Croatia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Azerbaijan officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Azerbaijan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Armenia officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? · Armenia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 31, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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