Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Will the UK join the EU? on Kalshi
If the United Kingdom has joined the EU by Jan 1, 2040, or the date that the country will officially join per its accession treaty is Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: EU.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Jan 1, 2032? · By Jan 1, 2032 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,686 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Jan 1, 2035? · By Jan 1, 2035 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,226 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Jan 1, 2040? · By Jan 1, 2040 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 648 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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