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F1 Driver Championship Exact Finish on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen finishes 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Verstappen finish 2nd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Max Verstappen | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,217 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish 2nd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lewis Hamilton | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 708 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish 3rd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lewis Hamilton | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 460 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish 4th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lewis Hamilton | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 193 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Russell finish 3rd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · George Russell | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 164 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen finish 3rd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Max Verstappen | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 104 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris finish 3rd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lando Norris | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 104 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish 3rd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Charles Leclerc | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 104 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Russell finish 2nd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · George Russell | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 26 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish 2nd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Charles Leclerc | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 24 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris finish 2nd in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lando Norris | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 16 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris finish 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lando Norris | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 7 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Russell finish 4th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · George Russell | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will George Russell finish 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · George Russell | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 5 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen finish 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Max Verstappen | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Charles Leclerc | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish 5th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lewis Hamilton | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen finish 4th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Max Verstappen | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris finish 4th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Lando Norris | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish 4th in the 2026 F1 Championship Final Driver Standings? · Charles Leclerc | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Dec 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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