Markets › Kalshi › Sports
F1: Leader of the Pack on Kalshi
If Lando Norris achieves a better finishing position than Andrea Kimi Antonelli in the Grand Prix at the Las Vegas Grand Prix originally scheduled for November 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli beat Lando Norris in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 6 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris beat Isack Hadjar in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Lando Norris | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen beat Lando Norris in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Max Verstappen | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will George Russell beat Lando Norris in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · George Russell | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris beat Andrea Kimi Antonelli in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Lando Norris | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris beat George Russell in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Lando Norris | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Isack Hadjar beat Lando Norris in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Isack Hadjar | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Lando Norris beat Max Verstappen in the Las Vegas Grand Prix? · Lando Norris | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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