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F1 Pole Position on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen set the fastest valid qualifying lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) originally scheduled for November 20, 2026 that determines the starting grid for the main race at the 2026 Las Vegas Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris is awarded Pole Position · Lando Norris | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,803 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Max Verstappen is awarded Pole Position · Max Verstappen | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,160 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli is awarded Pole Position · Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 1,150 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Lewis Hamilton is awarded Pole Position · Lewis Hamilton | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 550 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| George Russell is awarded Pole Position · George Russell | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 377 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Charles Leclerc is awarded Pole Position · Charles Leclerc | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 374 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Oscar Piastri is awarded Pole Position · Oscar Piastri | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 282 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Sergio Perez is awarded Pole Position · Sergio Perez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Lance Stroll is awarded Pole Position · Lance Stroll | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. is awarded Pole Position · Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Arvid Lindblad is awarded Pole Position · Arvid Lindblad | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Liam Lawson is awarded Pole Position · Liam Lawson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Nico Hulkenberg is awarded Pole Position · Nico Hulkenberg | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Ryo Hirakawa is awarded Pole Position · Ryo Hirakawa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Isack Hadjar is awarded Pole Position · Isack Hadjar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Pierre Gasly is awarded Pole Position · Pierre Gasly | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Franco Colapinto is awarded Pole Position · Franco Colapinto | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Valtteri Bottas is awarded Pole Position · Valtteri Bottas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Gabriel Bortoleto is awarded Pole Position · Gabriel Bortoleto | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Oliver Bearman is awarded Pole Position · Oliver Bearman | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Fernando Alonso is awarded Pole Position · Fernando Alonso | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Alexander Albon is awarded Pole Position · Alexander Albon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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