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F1 Top 5 Finishers on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen finishes in the top 5 in the main race originally scheduled for November 21, 2026 at the 2026 Las Vegas Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Race: Lewis Hamilton to finish top 5 · Lewis Hamilton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 206 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Charles Leclerc to finish top 5 · Charles Leclerc | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 200 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Max Verstappen to finish top 5 · Max Verstappen | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 20 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Oscar Piastri to finish top 5 · Oscar Piastri | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 18 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Andrea Kimi Antonelli to finish top 5 · Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 13 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Lando Norris to finish top 5 · Lando Norris | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Lance Stroll to finish top 5 · Lance Stroll | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Carlos Sainz Jr. to finish top 5 · Carlos Sainz Jr. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: George Russell to finish top 5 · George Russell | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Sergio Perez to finish top 5 · Sergio Perez | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Arvid Lindblad to finish top 5 · Arvid Lindblad | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Liam Lawson to finish top 5 · Liam Lawson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Nico Hulkenberg to finish top 5 · Nico Hulkenberg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Ryo Hirakawa to finish top 5 · Ryo Hirakawa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Isack Hadjar to finish top 5 · Isack Hadjar | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Pierre Gasly to finish top 5 · Pierre Gasly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Franco Colapinto to finish top 5 · Franco Colapinto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Valtteri Bottas to finish top 5 · Valtteri Bottas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Gabriel Bortoleto to finish top 5 · Gabriel Bortoleto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Oliver Bearman to finish top 5 · Oliver Bearman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Fernando Alonso to finish top 5 · Fernando Alonso | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
| Main Race: Alexander Albon to finish top 5 · Alexander Albon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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