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FA cup on Kalshi
If Wrexham is the 2026-2027 FA Cup Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Arsenal | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 23,414 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Manchester City | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 19,598 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Manchester United | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,961 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Tottenham | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,437 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Liverpool | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,312 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Chelsea | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,032 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brighton win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Brighton | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,384 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will West Ham win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · West Ham | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,065 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Aston Villa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,694 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wrexham win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Wrexham | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,661 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brentford win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Brentford | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,446 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nottingham win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Nottingham | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,433 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Leeds United | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,403 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Crystal Palace | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,400 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wolverhampton win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Wolverhampton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,370 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hull City win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Hull City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,309 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coventry win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Coventry | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,302 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Ipswich Town | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Burnley win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Burnley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,300 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Everton win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Everton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,137 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Sunderland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,030 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Bournemouth | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,024 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fulham win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Fulham | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,003 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Newcastle win the 2026-27 FA Cup? · Newcastle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 931 | Jun 05, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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